The 2026 Retail & Restaurant Real Estate Outlook delivers a data-driven view of the market conditions, trends, and geographic shifts shaping retail real estate, site selection, and market planning decisions. As vacancy remains low and competition intensifies, retailers and restaurants face a narrower margin for error when evaluating growth opportunities. This exclusive outlook provides clarity on where expansion still makes sense—and where caution is warranted—heading into 2026.
Executive Summary
What to Expect Heading into 2026
- Tight Supply and Intense Competition
Retail real estate remains supply-constrained, with vacancy near historic lows and limited new construction keeping competition for quality space elevated.
- Recycled Space Creates Selective Opportunity
Store closures and bankruptcies are returning well-located second-generation space to the market, opening targeted expansion opportunities for prepared brands.
- Demand Driven by Value and Experience
Restaurants, value retailers, and experience-led concepts continue to lead demand, while mid-tier retail faces growing pressure.
- More Selective Consumer Spending
Consumer behavior remains bifurcated, with value and experience outperforming as shoppers grow more intentional amid economic uncertainty.
- Uneven Market Momentum
Growth continues to favor Sunbelt and select coastal metros, while parts of California and other mature markets show softer exploratory activity.
What to Do About It
- Prioritize Precision Over Pace
Align expansion plans with verified local demand rather than national averages or legacy growth assumptions.
- Adopt Flexible Store Formats
Smaller, more adaptable footprints help brands access high-demand trade areas while managing capital risk and operating costs.
- Plan Through a Customer-First Lens
Combine competitive saturation, demographic trends, and behavioral insights to reduce overexpansion risk.
How This Report Was Built
This report blends third-party market data with proprietary analysis using SCOUT reporting within the Buxton Platform and audience intelligence from Audiense Action. SCOUT activity highlights where retailers and restaurants are actively evaluating growth, while Audiense Action surfaces consumer behaviors, affinities, and demand signals shaping those decisions. Together, these insights offer a forward-looking view of opportunity and risk.
Download the 2026 Retail & Restaurant Real Estate Outlook
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