Forecasting Site Score Model by Buxton

Forecasting Site Score Model

Forecast performance and cannibalization of any location to guide real estate decisions.

A forecasting site score model is one of the five primary types of site selection models that Buxton can create. In addition to forecasting the actual performance of any site based on variables that are found to correlate with your organization’s performance, the model also estimates the cannibalization impact of the site on other existing sites. Model variables may include factors such as your unique consumer profile, distance decay rates, presence of competitors, co-tenancy, area draw, healthcare supply and demand (for healthcare models), and more. Buxton’s analytics team tests potential model variables to determine which ones should be included in each client’s unique model.    

Most clients choose to build one overall forecasting site score model based on their core business, but Buxton can develop multiple models for clients with diversified business lines – such as different healthcare specialties or different retail departments.  

Output & Utilization

The forecasting site score model is deployed to SCOUT for on-demand access. When you use the model to score a site, the model generates a site score report with a forecast for the agreed upon metric of performance – typically either revenue or visits. The site score report also provides a list of important model variables with their index scores so you can see how the overall forecast was derived, as well as the expected cannibalization to existing sites. 

Data Requirements

You provide data such as: Unique location names and addresses, performance metric (often revenue or visit volumes) by month, location open and close dates, customer/patient names and addresses, customer/patient transaction or visit history, addresses of pipeline locations 

Buxton provides: Competitor locations, supply and demand data, consumer demographic/psychographic data, and other variables as needed (e.g. healthcare payer data) 

Buxton will work with you to set up a data feed to keep your location and consumer data up-to-date in the platform. 

*Requirements vary based on the model objective and client. Your Buxton representative will work with you to define the requirements and minimum sample set size to ensure a statistically sound model. Clients who do not wish to provide patient/customer data or are unable to provide this data may consider Buxton’s automated or enhanced site score models.  

Implementation

Forecasting site score models include at least one consumer profile and require a SCOUT subscription in order to access the site scoring tool. 

Forecasting site score models may be used as an input in the following additional products: 

  • Portfolio Audit  
  • Optimizer
  • Scenario Scoring 
  • Territory Optimization Analysis 
     

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